The complex transmission seasonality of hand, foot, and mouth disease and its driving factors

Background: The transmission rate seasonality is an important index for transmission dynamics in many childhood infections, and has been widely studied in industrialized countries. However, it has been neglected in the study of pathogens in China. Methods: To understand the transmission dynamics of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD), we examined the transmission rate seasonality of HFMD in three provinces, Henan, Anhui and Chongqing, in China, using a dynamical stochastic SIR model. We investigated potential driving factors, including school terms, the Chinese Spring Festival period, meteorological factors and population flux for their effects on the HFMD transmission seasonality using multiple regression models. Results: The transmission rate of HFMD had complex seasonality with one large major peak in March and one small peak in autumn. School terms, the Chinese Spring Festival period, population flux and meteorological factors had combined effects on the HFMD transmission seasonality in mainland China. The school terms reflects the seasonal contact rate in Children, while the population flux and the Chinese Spring Festival period reflect the seasonal contact rate in population. They drove HFMD transmission rate seasonality in different time periods of the year in China. Contact rate seasonality in population dominated effects on HFMD transmission in February and March. The dramatic increase in transmission rate during February coincides with the Chinese Spring Festival period and high population flux in this month. The contact rate seasonality in children dominated effects on the transmission in the other months of the year in Chongqing. Meteorological factors can not solely explain the seasonality in HFMD transmission in mainland China; however, they may have combined effects with school terms and the highway passenger traffic on the transmission rate in Anhui during the fall semester. Conclusion: The transmission rate of HFMD in three provinces in China had complex seasonality. The Chinese Spring Festival period, population flux and (or) school terms explained the majority of the transmission rate seasonality of HFMD, and they drove HFMD transmission rate seasonality in different time periods of the year. The Chinese Spring Festival period dominantly caused the dramatic increase of the HFMD transmission rate during February.Shandong Provincial Natural Science Foundation, China [ZR2018MH037]Open access journalThis item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at [email protected]

Whole-Chain Recommendations

With the recent prevalence of Reinforcement Learning (RL), there have been tremendous interests in developing RL-based recommender systems. In practical recommendation sessions, users will sequentially access multiple scenarios, such as the entrance pages and the item detail pages, and each scenario has its specific characteristics. However, the majority of existing RL-based recommender systems focus on optimizing one strategy for all scenarios or separately optimizing each strategy, which could lead to sub-optimal overall performance. In this paper, we study the recommendation problem with multiple (consecutive) scenarios, i.e., whole-chain recommendations. We propose a multi-agent RL-based approach (DeepChain), which can capture the sequential correlation among different scenarios and jointly optimize multiple recommendation strategies. To be specific, all recommender agents (RAs) share the same memory of users' historical behaviors, and they work collaboratively to maximize the overall reward of a session. Note that optimizing multiple recommendation strategies jointly faces two challenges in the existing model-free RL model - (i) it requires huge amounts of user behavior data, and (ii) the distribution of reward (users' feedback) are extremely unbalanced. In this paper, we introduce model-based RL techniques to reduce the training data requirement and execute more accurate strategy updates. The experimental results based on a real e-commerce platform demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework.Comment: 29th ACM International Conference on Information and Knowledge Managemen

Preliminary design and optimization of toroidally-wound limited angle servo motor based on a generalized magnetic circuit model

This paper proposes a new generalized equivalent magnetic circuit model for the preliminary design of a toroidally-wound limited angle servo motor (LASM). In the model, the magnetic networks are formulated as a function of the pole number and geometric dimensions. Nonlinear saturation effect of the ferromagnetic material is also taken into consideration. A multi-objective optimization function involving the torque requirement, the mass, the time constant, and magnetic saturations of ferromagnetic material is introduced. Based on the proposed model, six design cases with different objectives have been carried by the particle swarm optimization (PSO) method. The comparisons of different optimization cases demonstrate the effectiveness and computation efficiency of the proposed method, and hence its suitability in preliminary design. Moreover, the generalized model can be readily applied in the other electromagnetic modelling

Finite-size analysis of continuous-variable measurement-device-independent quantum key distribution

We study the impact of the finite-size effect on the continuous-variable measurement-device-independent quantum key distribution (CV-MDI QKD) protocol, mainly considering the finite-size effect on the parameter estimation procedure. The central-limit theorem and maximum likelihood estimation theorem are used to estimate the parameters. We also analyze the relationship between the number of exchanged signals and the optimal modulation variance in the protocol. It is proved that when Charlie's position is close to Bob, the CV-MDI QKD protocol has the farthest transmission distance in the finite-size scenario. Finally, we discuss the impact of finite-size effects related to the practical detection in the CV-MDI QKD protocol. The overall results indicate that the finite-size effect has a great influence on the secret key rate of the CV-MDI QKD protocol and should not be ignored.Comment: 9 pages, 9 figure

Watermarking Graph Neural Networks by Random Graphs

Many learning tasks require us to deal with graph data which contains rich relational information among elements, leading increasing graph neural network (GNN) models to be deployed in industrial products for improving the quality of service. However, they also raise challenges to model authentication. It is necessary to protect the ownership of the GNN models, which motivates us to present a watermarking method to GNN models in this paper. In the proposed method, an Erdos-Renyi (ER) random graph with random node feature vectors and labels is randomly generated as a trigger to train the GNN to be protected together with the normal samples. During model training, the secret watermark is embedded into the label predictions of the ER graph nodes. During model verification, by activating a marked GNN with the trigger ER graph, the watermark can be reconstructed from the output to verify the ownership. Since the ER graph was randomly generated, by feeding it to a non-marked GNN, the label predictions of the graph nodes are random, resulting in a low false alarm rate (of the proposed work). Experimental results have also shown that, the performance of a marked GNN on its original task will not be impaired. Moreover, it is robust against model compression and fine-tuning, which has shown the superiority and applicability.Comment: https://hzwu.github.io